News Dissector Blog: " Sam Gardiner, "War in the East Erupts; US Deeply Involved"

A reader forwards this excerpt to pass along with this comment, "References to 'The Guns of August' are not ill considered."

WAR IN THE EAST ERUPTS, US DEEPLY INVOLVED

Sam Gardiner goes behind the news:

Last night Georgia launched an attack to take back the breakaway republic of South Ossetia. The attack is being led by the 4th Motorized Brigade which has been the focus of U.S. training and support effort over the past few years. The attack is most likely being supported by reconnaissance troops that have been trained by Israel since October and drones purchased by Georgia from Israel.

The oil pipeline that runs from Baku, Azerbaijan to Chehan, Turkey is very close to where the fighting is taking place. That pipeline was cut earlier in the week by the Iraq-based PKK, and the Ossetians had threatened to cut it if Georgia launched an offensive. This pipeline was heavily supported by the U.S. in order to cut the vulnerability of oil flows from the Gulf. Approximately 1% of the world supply of oil comes through this route.

Since last night, the situation has escalated at a very rapid pace. At first volunteers from Russia were reported to be flowing into South Ossetia. Within the last hour, Russian units have been reported moving into the area. Russia reported seven minutes ago that 10 Russian peacekeepers have been killed and 30 wounded. Putin warned from Beijing that he will not tolerate the killing of Russians.

The situation is made more delicate for the United States because the 4th Brigade is the unit that has supplied troops for Iraq and Afghanistan. Also 1,200 U.S. troops have also just completed a joint exercise with the 4th Brigade in the past few days in Georgia.

And now Gardiner’s earlier uopdate on the Iranian Guns Of August:

Earlier this week the Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard announced the test of a new anti-ship cruise missile. According to the Iranian news agency, this new missile has a range of 300km (~180 miles).

I am normally skeptical of Iranian technology claims. I’m particularly skeptical of their claims about range and capabilities of the Shaab missiles. Just by looking at the parade pictures of the Shaabs, one gets the impression of a hobby-shop for missiles rather than a serious military production. Almost every missile is different, different fins, different connectors, different nose guards and different launchers. The Iranians exaggerate, and the United States exaggerates the Iranian exaggeration. The truth serves the objective of neither country.

The new anti-ship missile got my attention, however. Recall in 2006 Hezbollah struck an Iranian ship that was shelling Beirut airport with a C-802 missile. Even before that eye-opening shot, there were reports the Iranians were working on an extended range of the missile. My guess is the new missile is a version of the C-802.
I think in this case, the Iranian claims have to be taken seriously. Two reason for that. First, they have proven the technology. Second, with a range of 180 miles, the Gulf equation changes significantly.


The Iranians might now be able to reach tankers as they are loading and unloading on the western side of the Gulf. In addition, it means the U.S. capability to defend tankers almost evaporates. During the Tanker War, 1984-1987, it was possible to use U.S. Navy ships to convoy tankers out of the Gulf because the threat was short range weapons.


With a new weapon of this range, the U.S. would be forced to go after the missiles offensively, attacking missile locations in Iran. A little Google Earth analysis shows how difficult that would be. The Iranians have all their anti-ship missiles in covered shelters and probably in other locations. It would be a problem similar to the Scud hunting during Gulf I.


The threat to the flow of oil has just gone up a couple notches.

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